Correction, 30 September 2026. Technical wording rewritten in shorter sentences under the readability rule; the meaning is unchanged.
Correction, 1 October 2026. The outcome label now follows the study's value record, which counts this study as having changed a rule or a plan.
Correction, 20 October 2026. This text was reviewed after the study finished, in a catch-up of the earliest studies; the result, outcome and dates are unchanged.
Rules fixed before the result
The rules for each possible answer, and our own guess, were written down before anything was measured.
How it was made
Run took 19 minutes; independent code review: approve; the recorded calculation reruns to the same result.
Fingerprints
plan 1e9a368717c8a44d8886e9209c8d747f1144f8926a6b645a2fe263734fa41944 result 0c414fb62802eb1fd1bb226e178ac670f766e36eed0ab1034c0cd68fddeb9ca4
Exploratory work on development data; not a performance claim.